April 05, 2016, Irvine, Calif. –
Forecast Projects Increase of 5.2 Percent by February 2017
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ data for February 2016 which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.8 percent in February 2016 compared with February 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in February 2016 compared with January 2016,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.2 percent on a year-over-year basis from February 2016 to February 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase 0.6 percent from February 2016 to March 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“Fixed-rate mortgage rates dropped more than one-quarter of a percentage point in the first three months of 2016, and job creation averaged 209,000 over the same period,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “These economic forces will sustain home purchases during the spring and support the 5.2 percent home price appreciation CoreLogic has projected for the next year.”
“Home prices continue to rise across the U.S. with every state posting year-over-year gains during the last 12 months,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Improved economic conditions and tight inventories continue to drive exceptionally strong gains in many markets, especially for homes priced below $500,000.”
Full-month February 2016 national data can be found at the CoreLogic Home Price Insights page.
*January data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 30 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with a five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends among that include the Single-Family Combined tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties (including all sales for Single-Family Attached and Single-Family Detached properties). The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction structural model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a five-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code-levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.
CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
POST NOTE: Check this Riverside County stat – Could the prices in Riverside county be trending downward?